ACYF-PI-86-03 Attachment

Attachment

INSTRUCTION FOR SECTION 427 TRIENNIAL REVIEW
CASE RECORD SURVEY SAMPLE

TRIENNIAL REVIEW DECISION TABLE V

Triennial Review Criteria

The Triennial Review, completed for the third year after a State has passed its Subsequent Review, requires a 90 percent level of acceptable case records from the State file of open and closed cases in which the child was in foster care for at least six months during the year under review. This necessitates the use of Decision Table V for all States and Indian Tribal Organizations, and other political jurisdictions.

Sample Size

A random sample of 163 case records of open and closed cases are necessary for the review. This will require the random selection of 200 case records to allow for oversampling for ineligible case records. The entire random sample should be arranged in random reading sequence, using a table of random numbers, if the random selection process results in an "ordered" sample that mirrors the filing order of the State file. This will occur when the State uses a sampling fraction procedure in which the first case is selected randomly and all subsequent cases are multiples of the sampling fraction plus the number of the first case. Some States have a capacity for random digit generation, and this will generate a random sample in random reading sequence if the records are pulled and kept in the sequence of the random digits.

For those States and Indian Tribal Organizations having fewer than 200 children in foster care eligible for review, all cases are read.

Decision Table V

Decision Table V is used for all States and Indian Tribal Organizations. In approximately 95% of the reviews a decision will be reached by the 163rd case record reviewed. A decision will occur when the cumulative number of unacceptable case records meets the boundary of either the acceptance zone or the rejection zone. It is advisable to continue reviewing an additional six case records whenever the rejection zone is reached. This may avoid the need for further review in the future in the event that a decision on one or more unacceptable case record reviews is reversed. If, after the 163rd case record is reviewed, the cumulative number of unacceptable case records remains in the zone of indifference the review is truncated and no further records are reviewed. The decision to pass or fail the case record review under this circumstance is based on the numeric values of 23 or less unacceptable records in the sample from the State file for passing and 24 or more unacceptable case records for failing.

The instructions for Decision Table V are as follows:

Col. 1.	Case Record I.D. - The Review Supervisor enters the case record I.D. of every case that is reviewed in the sequence in which the review is completed. This would follow the random reading sequence allowing for deletion of case records that do not meet selection criteria.
2.	Number of Records Reviewed - This is a sequential listing of the cumulative number of records reviewed beginning with 1 and ending with 163 for the last record that may be evaluated, e.g., the number 54 would indicate that a total of 54 records have been reviewed.
3.	Acceptance Number - This column represents the maximum number of "Unacceptable" case records in the sample for a State to pass. This is the boundary of the acceptance zone. No decision to accept a State can be made before 26 case records have been reviewed. At that point, if the first 26 records are acceptable, the State file is passed without further review of case records.
4.	Unacceptable: Actual/Cumulative - This represents the actual and cumulative total of "Unacceptable" case records. The Review Supervisor enters the actual and cumulative total number of "Unacceptable" case records in this column as each record review is completed and the results are transferred from the Reviewer's Tally Sheet to the Decision Table. Enter "0" for an "Acceptable" case record and "1" for an "Unacceptable" case record. This cumulative total of "Unacceptable" case records is compared row by row with the corresponding figures in columns 3 and 5. Whenever the number in this column equals the number of either column 3 or 5, the review process stops and a decision is made. If the cumulative numbers in column 4 equals the number in column 3, the review process stops and the decision is made to pass the State file. If the cumulative number in column 4 equals the number in column 5, the review process stops and the decision is made to fail the State. However, it is advisable to review an additional six case records in the event that a case record review decision is subsequently changed from unacceptable to acceptable. if the cumulative total in column 4 is greater than the number in column 3 and less than the number in column 5, the review process continues until the 163rd case record is reviewed. Do not stop reviewing cases when the number in column 4 is between the values in columns 3 and 5 regardless of the number of unacceptable case records. Specifically, do not terminate the review as soon as there are 24 or more unacceptable case records as long as that total is less than the value in column 5. This is to avoid the need for further review if a decision is made to change the rating at a later date on one or more care records reviewed. Continue reading until the acceptance boundary value is reached or until the 163rd case record is reviewed. Read an additional six case records when the rejection boundary is reached.
5.	Rejection Number - This column represents the minimum number of "Unacceptable" case records that are necessary to make the decision that the State file has failed the case record review. This is the boundary of the rejection zone. No decision to fail a State file can be made until the first seven case records are reviewed and all are found to be Unacceptable.
6.	Reviewer's Initials - The reviewer initials the entry made by the supervisor for each completed case record reviewed.
7.	Supervisor's Initials - The Review Supervisor initials the entry made for each completed case record reviewed.

Truncated Review

The case record review is truncated after the review of the 163rd case record and the value in column 4 is between the values in columns 3 and 5. The State file is then considered to be in the zone of indifference. A decision is made based on the values in the row labeled "Truncated" for columns 3 and 5. When the cumulative number of unacceptable case records in column 4 is 23 or less, the State file is passed. If it is 24 or more, the State file is failed.

Technical Note: Statistical Computation

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) was used for the binomial distribution. The four quantities that completely determine the sequential inspection plan for States with children who were in continuous foster care for six or more months during the year under review are:

o	P1 = .10	The acceptable quality limit expressed as a fraction of unacceptable case records.
o	P2 = .20	The unacceptable quality limit expressed as a fraction of unacceptable case records.
o	alpha = .01	Type 1 Error
o	beta = .05	Type II Error

The formulas for the Acceptance Numbers (Column 3) and the Rejection Numbers (Column 5) of Decision Table V are:

Acceptance Number = -3.6817 + .1452 x (# of records
reviewed),

Rejection Number = 5.6155 + .1452 x (# of records reviewed).

Whenever a decision is made based on truncating the review after the 163rd case record, the risk values of making a wrong decision are increased to:

o alpha = .04	Type I Error, and
o beta = .08	Type II Error.

TRIENNIAL REVIEW DECISION TABLE V

Review Supervisor

Telephone Number

State

Dates

1	2	3	4	5	6	7
Case Record I.D.	Number Records Reviewed	Acceptance Number	Unacceptable* Actual Cumulative	Rejection Number	Reviewer's Initial	Supervisor's Initial
	1	-		-
	2	-		-
	3	-		-
	4	-		-
	5	-		-
	6	-		-
	7	-		7
	8	-		7
	9	-		7
	10	-		8
	11	-		8
	12	-		8
	13	-		8
	14	-		8
	15	-		8
	16	-		8
	17	-		9
	18	-		9
	19	-		9
	20	-		9
	21	-		9
	22	-		9
	23	-		9
	24	-		10
	25	-		10
	26	0		10
	27	0		10
	28	0		10
	29	0		10
	30	0		10
	31	0		11
	32	0		11
	33	1		11
	34	1		11
	35	1		11
	36	1		11
	37	1		11
	38	1		12
	39	1		12
	40	2		12
	41	2		12
	41	2		12
	42	2		12
	43	2		12
	44	2		13
	45	2		13
	46	2		13
	47	3		13
	48	3		13
	49	3		13
	50	3		13
	51	3		14
	52	3		14
	53	4		14
	54	4		14
	55	4		14
	56	4		14
	57	4		14
	58	4		15
	59	4		15
	60	5		15
	61	5		15
	62	5		15
	63	5		15
	64	5		15
	65	5		16
	66	5		16
	67	6		16
	68	6		16
	69	6		16
	70	6		16
	71	6		16
	72	6		17
	73	6		17
	74	7		17
	75	7		17
	76	7		17
	77	7		17
	78	7		17
	79	7		18
	80	7		18
	81	8		18
	82	8		18
	83	8		18
	84	8		18
	85	8		18
	86	8		19
	87	8		19
	88	9		19
	89	9		19
	90	9		19
	91	9		19
	92	9		19
	93	9		20
	94	9		20
	95	10		20
	96	10		20
	97	10		20
	98	10		20
	99	10		21
	100	10		21
	101	11		21
	102	11		21
	103	11		21
	104	11		21
	105	11		21
	106	11		22
	107	11		22
	108	12		22
	109	12		22
	110	12		22
	111	12		22
	112	12		22
	113	12		23
	114	12		23
	113	12		23
	115	13		23
	116	13		23
	117	13		23
	118	13		23
	119	13		23
	120	13		24
	121	13		24
	122	14		24
	123	14		24
	124	14		24
	125	14		24
	126	14		24
	127	14		25
	128	14		25
	129	15		25
	130	15		25
	131	15		25
	132	15		25
	133	15		25
	134	15		26
	135	15		26
	136	16		26
	137	16		26
	138	16		26
	139	16		26
	140	16		26
	141	16		27
	142	16		27
	143	17		27
	144	17		27
	145	17		27
	146	17		27
	147	17		27
	148	17		28
	149	17		28
	150	18		28
	151	18		28
	152	18		28
	153	18		28
	154	18		29
	155	18		29
	156	18		29
	157	19		29
	158	19		29
	159	19		29
	160	19		29
	161	19		30
	162	19		30
	163	20		30
	Truncate	23		24

*Accept = 0

Reject = 1