The Children's Bureau (CB) statisticians have developed a sampling plan that States can opt to use for complying with the requirements related to the submission of caseworker visit data. AFCARS A and B submissions would be used to create three sampling frame files; the children in care on September 30, the exits occurring during the AFCARS B period (April 1st – September 30), and the exits occurring during the AFCARS A period (October 1st – March 31). The CB statisticians will provide the required sample size for each State based on the total number of children in these three files. The sample size will be allocated proportionately among the three sampling frames. For example, if the required sample size were 300 children and there were 10,000 children in the September 30th sampling frame and 5,000 children in each of the two exit sampling frames yielding a total of 20,000 children, then 50% (10,000/20,000) or 150 sample cases (plus a 10% oversample) would be selected from the September 30th frame and 75 (5,000/20,000) children (plus a 10% oversample) would be selected from each of the two exit frames.
Each child from the September 30th sample would be tracked back to October 1st or the day he or she entered care if later than October 1st. Each child in the exit samples would also be tracked back to October 1st or the day he or she entered care if later than October 1st. In this way, every child served during the AFCARS A and B periods would have a chance to be selected for the samples. Working backwards makes more sense than sampling on a monthly basis as this would often lead to complications.
The CB statisticians have developed most of the syntax that will generate the three sampling frames as well as indicating how many full months each sampled child was in care during the AFCARS A and B period. We have also modified a spreadsheet that can be utilized to enter the data and automatically compute the required percentages.
If any States that intend to utilize sampling to comply with the caseworker visit data reporting requirements wish to adopt this sampling strategy, then they would have the option of selecting their own samples with the CB syntax, or have the CB statisticians select the samples after a State's AFCARS B file for the applicable year is submitted. We have also attached the spreadsheet that was previously mentioned.
Attachment A: FFY 2008 Allocation Tables:
(FFY 2009 Estimated Allotments for Monthly Caseworker Visits funds are pending and will be released shortly.)
Attachment B: CFS-101
Attachment C: Children's Bureau Sampling Strategy for Caseworker Visits Data
HTML or PDF (13 KB)
Attachment D: Assurances and Certificates
HTML or PDF (61 KB)
Attachment E: Children's Bureau Regional Program Managers
HTML or PDF (16 KB)