The rapid growth of the child support population of the United States over the past decade is projected to slow between 1998 and 2009. Our projections suggest that the growth of the child support population over the next ten years will continue to outpace the total population growth in the United States, but will not be as remarkable as the growth of the previous ten years. In 1998, the child support population of the United States reached an estimated 62 million people, a 32 percent increase from 1988. By 2009, we project that the child support population of the United States will reach 72 million people, a 15 percent increase from 1998. More than 19 million custodians will be the primary caregivers for 30 million children, with a projected 22 million noncustodial parents.

The rate of growth of the child support population is projected to slow for three reasons. First, the population of the United States is aging out of the prime parenthood years. Over the next ten years, the large cohorts of baby boomers will begin to be replaced by the much smaller cohorts of the baby bust. Second, nonmarital fertility has been fairly constant over the past five years and is projected to remain so (albeit at a very high level by historic standards). And third, divorce rates in the United States have declined from their peak in the early 1980s.

Despite the slowing in the overall rate of growth of the child support population, certain segments of the population will continue to experience rapid growth rates. For example, the number of custodial fathers will increase dramatically, as will the number of nonparent custodians (including grandparent custodians), and never-married custodians. Each of these subgroups is projected to grow substantially faster than the overall child support population. Likewise, Hispanics and Asians will experience faster growth rates than any other race or ethnic group. Finally, growth will be stronger in the early part of the projection period, from 1998 to 2004, than in the latter part of the projection period from 2004 to 2009.

In this report we present the numbers of custodial parents, nonparent custodians, and noncustodial parents projected for the years 2004 and 2009, examining the characteristics of each group as well as the underlying demographic and economic trends driving these projections. As the future of the child support population becomes clearer, so will the ability to anticipate the needs and to plan for the changes. Anticipating the future can mean changing the future for thousands of children.