ACF OPRE: Meta-Analysis of Welfare-to-Work Programs

APPENDIX TABLES

Table A.1
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS RESULTS FOR AFDC APPLICANTS AND RECIPIENTS - 7 QUARTERS AFTER RANDOM ASSIGNMENT
(Standard errors in parentheses)
	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups
	Participation in AFDC		Amount of AFDC Payment		Earnings		Percentage Employed
Constant	-3.314 *** (0.71)	-6.852 *** (2.43)	-32.707 (28.76)	28.787 *** (10.67)	74.605 (50.14)	-24.019 (102.41)	3.008 * (1.52)	2.274 *** (0.71)
Applicant = 1	-1.342 ** (0.50)		13.156 (14.95)		-24.565 (29.35)		-1.291 ** (0.50)
Proportion of Applicants (0 to 1)		0.659 (0.55)		-68.336 *** (12.77)		-49.021 ** (23.27)		1.562 *** (0.44)
Intervention impact on % sanctioned	0.063 (0.04)	0.116 *** (0.04)		3.811 *** (0.52)		7.035 *** (1.53)	0.158 *** (0.04)	0.199 *** (0.03)
Intervention impact on % participated in job search	0.154 *** (0.02)	0.128 *** (0.02)	1.724 ** (0.75)	1.770 *** (0.31)	4.078 *** (1.27)	1.225 * (0.70)	0.020 (0.02)	0.050 *** (0.01)
Intervention impact on % participated in basic education	0.112 ***(0.04)	0.078 ** (0.03)	3.509 *** (1.00)	0.879 (0.61)		0.113 (1.28)	-0.043 (0.04)	-0.005 (0.03)
Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education	0.176 * (0.10)	0.130 * (0.08)	2.472 (3.83)	3.585 *** (1.28)	4.622 (4.49)	-1.736 (2.51)	0.281 *** (0.10)	0.115 * (0.07)
Intervention impact on % participated in work experience		0.004 (0.05)		-2.295 ** (1.02)
Intervention included financial incentive=1				-93.866 *** (9.14)		-43.947 *** (16.25)
Intervention included time limit=1	2.311 *** (0.73)	2.652 *** (0.66)	-5.139 (23.83)		157.348 *** (42.78)		2.241 *** (0.76)	1.151 *(0.68)
Average age of target group		0.133 * (0.08)				6.006 * (3.28)
% of target group with recent employment	0.004 *** (0.00)	0.000 (0.00)					-0.010 (0.27)	-0.001 * (0.00)
Annual % change in local manufacturing employment	-0.033 (0.07)	-0.128 ** 0.059		6.845 *** (1.49)		4.350 (2.86)		0.159 *** (0.05)
Poverty rate					-9.099 ** (3.39)	-7.513 *** 1.795	-0.125 ** (0.05)	-0.016 *** (0.00)
Adjusted R-squared	0.299	0.0327	0.270	0.345	0.288	0.274	0.058	0.193
F-test for contribution of added variables	3.025 **	4.354 ***	3.001 **	4.880 ***	3.102 **	4.397 ***	1.363	3.21 ***
Number of observations	39	70	28	60	27	82	48	84

***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level

Table A.2
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS - 7 QUARTERS AFTER RANDOM ASSIGNMENT RESULTS FOR AFDC PARTICIPANTS EMPLOYED AND NOT EMPLOYED IN YEAR PRIOR TO RANDOM ASSIGNMENT
(Standard errors in parentheses)
	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups
	Participation in AFDC		Amount of AFDC Payment		Earnings		Percentage Employed
Constant	11.103 *** (2.52)	-4.678 * (2.54)	-19.114 (25.73)	-91.197 ** (39.14)	-34.798 (43.37)	-96.335 (98.56)	16.488 *** (2.44)	-5.097 ** (2.37)
Employed in Previous Year = 1	-0.252 (0.80)		-8.670 (12.30)		-58.960 ** (25.89)		-2.203 ** (0.76)
Proportion of Applicants (0 to 1)		-0.647 (0.79)		-27.634 ** (12.76)		-32.553 (27.92)		-0.930 (0.75)
Intervention impact on % sanctioned		0.155 *** (0.05)	4.183 *** (0.79)	2.301 *** (0.46)	7.303 *** (1.68)	6.074 *** (1.23)		0.200 *** (0.03)
Intervention impact on % participated in job search	-0.217 *** (0.06)	0.001 (0.02)	5.093 *** (0.73)	3.561 *** (0.32)	4.662 *** (1.35)	2.823 *** (0.70)	-0.306 *** (0.05)	0.077 *** (0.02)
Intervention impact on % participated in basic education		-0.073 * (0.04)		1.261 *** (0.42)		-2.477 ** (1.03)		0.005 (0.03)
Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education	-0.571 ** (0.18)	0.066 (0.07)	-6.064 *** (2.11)	-2.392 ** (0.96)	2.670 (3.83)	4.479 * (2.59)		0.056 (0.07)
Intervention impact on % participated in work experience		-0.157 *** (0.06)				1.462 (2.49)		0.026 (0.04)
Intervention included financial incentive=1		-7.115 *** (1.01)		-171.466 *** (12.28)	230.763 *** (49.77)	-15.610 (32.97)		3.134 *** (0.81)
Intervention included time limit=1		3.148 *** (0.92)		71.710 *** (10.09)				1.777 ** (0.76)
Number of years since 1982	-0.099 (0.11)	-0.132 (0.11)
Average age of target group		0.225 ** (0.09)		2.779 *** (1.24)		3.644 (3.24)		0.139 * (0.07)
Annual % change in local manufacturing employment		0.003 (0.09)	10.054 (2.84)	8.153 *** (1.32)		5.764 * (3.04)	0.291 ** (0.10)	0.139 ** (0.06)
Poverty Rate							-0.223 ** (0.10)
Max. Amount of AFDC for family of 3		(0.004) * (0.00)
Adjusted R-squared	0.038	0.321	0.660	0.598	0.473	0.364	0.647	0.253
F-test for contribution of added variables	1.110	3.360 ***	9.913 ***	12.217 ***	6.207 ***	5.646 ***	6.040 **	3.001 ***
Number of observations	12	61	24	69	30	74	12	60

***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level

Table A.3
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS - 7 QUARTERS AFTER RANDOM ASSIGNMENT RESULTS FOR PARTICIPANTS WITH AND WITHOUT HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA
(Standard errors in parentheses)
	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups
	Participation in AFDC		Amount of AFDC Payment		Earnings		Percentage Employed
Constant	1.507 * (0.77)	-0.266 (1.38)	38.037 ** (15.60)	-45.925 *** (10.32)	-155.368 ** (59.93)	5.849 (26.87)	-1.985 ** (0.77)	-0.900 (1.22)
Has High School Diploma = 1	-0.033 (0.69)		3.119 (9.58)		55.100 * (29.12)		1.038 (0.70)
Proportion with High School Diploma (0 to 1)		-0.118 (0.68)		2.202 (9.56)		15.342 (26.82)		0.680 (0.70)
Intervention impact on % sanctioned	-0.051 (0.07)	0.096 ** (0.04)	3.443 *** (0.59)	2.764 *** (0.44)	12.466 *** (2.03)	6.680 *** (1.18)	0.130 (0.07)	0.157 *** (0.04)
Intervention impact on % participated in job search	0.109 *** (0.03)	0.010 (0.02)	3.905 *** (0.49)	4.412 *** (0.30)	6.318 *** (1.49)	3.136 *** (0.74)	0.237 *** (0.03)	0.151 *** (0.02)
Intervention impact on % participated in basic education		-0.010 (0.03)		2.076 *** (0.55)	-5.021 ** (2.17)	-3.646 ** (1.41)		-0.078 ** (0.03)
Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education		-0.073 (0.07)	-10.773 *** (1.49)	-0.894 (0.93)	1.538 (4.69)	1.667 (2.59)		0.098 (0.07)
Intervention impact on % participated in work experience		0.051 (0.05)						-0.055 (0.04)
Intervention included financial incentive=1		-7.015 *** (0.79)		-160.362 *** (10.13)		2.964 (28.53)		2.346 *** (0.84)
Intervention included time limit=1		2.589 *** (0.79)		72.235 *** (9.56)		-6.734 (22.37)		0.424 (0.84)
Years since 1982
% of target group with recent employment		-0.009 (0.02)						-0.002 (0.00)
Annual % change in local manufacturing employment				8.926 *** (1.54)	27.334 *** (6.96)
Poverty Rate								0.031 (0.06)
Maximum amount of AFDC for family 3		0.006 *** (0.00)
Adjusted R-squared	-0.11	0.249	0.592	0.596	0.553	0.34	0.533	0.44
F-test for contribution of added variables	0.471	2.891 ***	8.614 ***	10.041 ***	5.331 ***	4.827 ***	7.076 ***	5.247 ***
Number of observations	17	58	22	50	22	53	17	55

***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level

Table A.4
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS - 7 QUARTERS AFTER RANDOM ASSIGNMENT - RESULTS FOR LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM PARTICIPANTS IN AFDC
(Standard error in parentheses)
	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups	Pure subgroups	Mixed groups
	Participation in AFDC		Amount of AFDC Payment		Earnings		Percentage Employed
Constant	6.884 *** (1.41)	-2.669 (2.04)	418.105 *** (105.84)	17.215 (11.04)	-94.078 (68.15)	15.584 (33.08)	5.365 *** (1.48)	2.103 (1.45)
Has High School Diploma = 1	0.651 (0.93)		29.659 *** (10.77)		103.994 *** (24.37)		6.305 *** (1.00)
Proportion with High School Diploma (0 to 1)		2.204 ** (0.82)		-42.433 *** (10.85)		95.760 *** (24.12)		5.408 *** (0.96)
Intervention impact on % sanctioned	-0.798 *** (0.25)	0.973 *** (0.19)		2.679 *** (0.66)	4.746 *** (1.62)	5.562 ** (2.09)	0.252 (0.28)	0.591 *** (0.19)
Intervention impact on % participated in job search		0.031 (0.04)	5.696 *** (0.60)	3.384 *** (0.41)	6.660 *** (1.03)	4.725 *** (0.85)
Intervention impact on % participated in basic education			2.121 *** (0.67)	-0.071 (0.54)		-4.144 *** (1.25)		0.609 * (0.35)
Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education	17.198 *** (1.54)			-6.580 *** (1.23)	3.172 (3.70)	3.071 (3.11)	4.527 ** (1.70)
Intervention impact on % participated in work experience		-0.296 ** (0.12)	-3.006 * (1.71)			0.870 (4.45)	0.347 * (0.18)	-0.032 (0.16)
Intervention included financial incentive=1			-62.002 *** (20.07)	-25.556 * (13.12)	1.736 (41.51)	-59.514 ** (24.27)		1.993 * (0.98)
Number of years since 1982		0.108 (0.17)
Average age of target group			-14.250 *** 3.578
Annual % change in local manufacturing employment	-0.359 * (0.18)			4.290 ** (1.84)		3.857 (3.68)	-1.491 *** (0.23)
Poverty rate					-1.695 (3.92)	-4.537 * (2.40)		-0.378 *** (0.08)
Adjusted R-squared	0.568	-0.070	0.378	0.391	0.577	0.513	0.519	0.242
F-test for contribution of added variables	3.962	0.753	4.036 ***	5.034 ***	7.127 ***	6.615 ***	2.945	2.013
Number of observations	10	20	31	45	28	49	10	20

***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level

U.S. Welfare-to-Work Evaluations Included in the Database - Number of Sites and Evaluations/Interventions Single-Parent Impacts
Prog-No.	Program Title	Short Program Name	Number of sites	Number of evaluations/ interventions
1	California's Greater Avenues for Independence Program	GAIN	6	6
2	Job Search and Work Experience in Cook County	Cook County	1	2
3	Community Work Experience Demonstrations	West Virginia	1	1
4	WORK Program	Arkansas	3 1_i	3
5	Employment Initiatives	Baltimore	1	1
6	Saturation Work Initiative Model In San Diego	SWIM	1	1
7	Employment Services Program	Virginia	1	1
8	JOBS Program	Florida	10 2_i	10
9	Jobs First	Connecticut	3 1_ii	3
10	The Family Transition Program	FTP	1	1
11	The Los Angeles Jobs-First GAIN Evaluation	Los Angeles	1	1
12	The San Diego Job Search and Work Experience Demo	San Diego	1	2
13	JOBS Program	NEWWS	7	11
14	Minnesota Family Investment Program	MFIP	2 1_iii^,4	3
15	Vermont's Welfare Restructuring Project.	Vermont	8 3	16
16	Teenage Parent Demonstration	Teenage parents	3 1_iv	3
17	Wisconsin Welfare Employment Experiment	Wisconsin	1	1
18	Ohio Transitions to Independence Demonstration	Ohio	1	1
19	The Indiana Welfare Reform Program	Indiana	1	1
20	Saturation Work Program.	Philadelphia	1	1
21	To Strengthen Michigan Families	Michigan	5 2_ii	5
22	A Better Chance	ABC	1	1
23	Virginia Independence Program	VIEW	3	3
24	Family Investment Program	Iowa	1	1
N			64	79

Note:

1 Including one record for all sites combined. (back: 1_i, 1_ii, 1_iii, 1_iv)

2 Including one record for all sites combined, but only combined record has quarterly data (others annual only). (back: 2_i, 2_ii)

3 Including one record for all sites combined, plus another for all state counties. (back)

4 Single parent data for Urban and Rural Minnesota sites (but not combined); 2-parent impact data for Urban Minnesota and combined Urban and Rural Minnesota (but not Rural). (back)

Table 1

Number of evaluations/interventions in the current database with recorded earnings or AFDC receipt impacts for participant sub-group
		Quarterly	Annual	Quarterly	Annual
		Earnings		AFDC Receipt
One parent families	AFDC applicants	22	17	27	8
	Current recipients of AFDC	17	20	22	6
	Participating with high school diploma	11	14	11	8
	Participants without high school diploma	12	15	12	9
	Participants employed during year prior to random assignment	8	23	9	3
	Participants not employed during year prior to random assignment	8	23	9	3
	Long-term recipient of AFDC	7	25	7	0
	Short-term recipient of AFDC	6	20	6	2
Two-parent families		17	15	31	12

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