TABLES
Table 1
U.S. WELFARE-TO-WORK EVALUATIONS INCLUDED IN THE DATABASE
| Type |
Program Title |
Short Program Name |
Evaluator/ Author |
Mid-point of Random Assignment |
Financial Incentive Scheme |
| MANDATORY |
Greater Avenues for Independence Program |
GAIN (California) |
MDRC |
1989 |
|
| Job Search and Work Experience in Cook County |
Cook County |
MDRC |
1985 |
|
| Community Work Experience Demonstrations |
West Virginia |
MDRC |
1983 |
|
| WORK Program |
Arkansas |
MDRC |
1983 |
|
| Employment Initiatives |
Baltimore |
MDRC |
1983 |
|
| Saturation Work Initiative Model |
SWIM (San Diego) |
MDRC |
1985 |
|
| Employment Services Program |
Virginia |
MDRC |
1984 |
|
| Project Independence (Florida's JOBS Program) |
Florida |
MDRC |
1991 |
|
| Jobs First |
Connecticut |
MDRC |
1996 |
v |
| The Family Transition Program |
FTP (Florida) |
MDRC |
1994 |
|
| The Los Angeles Jobs-First GAIN Evaluation |
Los Angeles |
MDRC |
1996 |
|
| The San Diego Job Search and Work Experience Demonstration |
San Diego |
MDRC |
1983 |
|
| National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies |
NEWWS |
MDRC |
1993 |
|
| Minnesota Family Investment Program |
MFIP |
MDRC |
1994 |
v |
| Vermont's Welfare Restructuring Project. |
Vermont |
MDRC |
1995 |
v |
| Teenage Parent Demonstration |
Teenage Parents |
Mathematica Policy Research (MPR) |
1988 |
|
| Wisconsin Welfare Employment Experiment |
Wisconsin |
University of Wisconsin |
1988 |
|
| Ohio Transitions to Independence Demonstration |
Ohio |
Abt Associates |
1990 |
|
| The Indiana Welfare Reform Program |
Indiana |
Abt Associates |
1995 |
|
| Saturation Work Program. |
Philadelphia |
PA Department of Public Welfare |
1986 |
|
| To Strengthen Michigan Families |
TSMF (Michigan) |
Abt Associates |
1993 |
|
| A Better Chance |
ABC (Delaware) |
Abt Associates |
1996 |
|
| Virginia Independence Program |
VIEW |
MPR |
1996 |
|
| Family Investment Program |
FIP (Iowa) |
MPR |
1994 |
|
| Personal Responsibility and Employment Program |
PREP (Colorado) |
The Centers of the University of Colorado |
1995 |
|
| Self-Sufficiency First/Pay for Performance Program |
SSF/PFP (Wisconsin) |
Institute for Research on Poverty, University of WI |
1995 |
|
| California Work Pays Demonstration Program (financial incentive only) |
CWPDP |
UCLA School of Public Policy and Social Research |
1993 |
v |
| Child Assistance Program |
CAP (New York) |
Abt Associates |
1989 |
v |
| VOLUNTARY |
Supported Work |
SW |
MDRC |
1976 |
|
| Homemaker Health Aide |
HHA |
Abt Associates |
1984 |
|
| Training Opportunities in the Private Sector Program |
TOPS (Maine) |
MDRC |
1984 |
|
| New Jersey Grant Diversion Project |
NJGD |
MDRC |
1985 |
|
| New York State Comprehensive Employment Opportunities |
CEOSC |
Abt |
1989 |
|
| Support Centers Program |
|
|
|
|
| Self-Sufficiency Project |
SSP (Canada) |
MDRC |
1994 |
v |
| Self-Sufficiency Project Plus |
SSP+ Canada) |
SRDC |
1985 |
v |
Table 2
SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR THE MANDATORY PROGRAM IMPACT MEASURES
| |
Quarter since random assignment |
| 3 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
| Unweighted |
Weighted |
Unweighted |
Weighted |
Unweighted |
Weighted |
Unweighted |
Weighted |
| EARNINGS |
Mean value for controls |
757.7 |
675.2 |
1021.1 |
965.0 |
1129.8 |
1132.3 |
1406.5 |
1357.4 |
| Mean impact |
79.9 |
73.9 |
86.8 |
99.0 |
111.4 |
112.2 |
86.2 |
114.9 |
| Standard Deviation |
64.2 |
64.0 |
88.6 |
97.9 |
117.6 |
112.0 |
112.0 |
125.6 |
| Median impact |
135.5 |
88.0 |
164.8 |
102.1 |
145.1 |
103.2 |
192.1 |
87.5 |
| Minimum |
-672.7 |
-672.7 |
-916.8 |
-916.8 |
-352.9 |
-352.9 |
-543.0 |
-543.0 |
| Maximum |
413.9 |
413.9 |
496.7 |
496.7 |
467.0 |
467.0 |
428.9 |
428.9 |
| Number of observations |
79 |
79 |
79 |
79 |
56 |
56 |
45 |
45 |
| PERCENT EMPLOYED |
Mean value for controls |
31.4 |
29.3 |
37.0 |
34.8 |
36.7 |
37.4 |
39.4 |
37.4 |
| Mean impact |
3.4 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
| Standard Deviation |
2.8 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
| Median impact |
3.5 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
3.2 |
3.0 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
2.8 |
| Minimum |
-3.1 |
-3.1 |
-10.5 |
-10.5 |
-1.2 |
-1.2 |
-9.6 |
-9.6 |
| Maximum |
13.0 |
13.0 |
10.3 |
10.3 |
11.8 |
11.8 |
15.9 |
15.9 |
| Number of observations |
68 |
68 |
76 |
76 |
51 |
51 |
53 |
53 |
| AFDC PAYMENTS |
Mean value for controls |
1321.6 |
1032.8 |
1050.4 |
803.6 |
991.2 |
644.0 |
669.5 |
458.0 |
| Mean impact |
52.1 |
37.8 |
63.9 |
53.7 |
80.0 |
59.4 |
63.6 |
75.1 |
| Standard Deviation |
50.2 |
38.8 |
50.3 |
43.6 |
73.8 |
54.7 |
55.3 |
69.4 |
| Median impact |
140.6 |
104.0 |
122.9 |
99.8 |
124.8 |
88.5 |
62.0 |
41.4 |
| Minimum |
-565.7 |
-565.7 |
-406.7 |
-406.7 |
-311.2 |
-311.2 |
-129.0 |
-129.0 |
| Maximum |
400.1 |
400.1 |
325.8 |
325.8 |
501.1 |
501.1 |
178.2 |
178.2 |
| Number of observations |
74 |
74 |
71 |
71 |
51 |
51 |
44 |
44 |
| PERCENT RECEIVING AFDC PAYMENTS |
Mean value for controls |
75.6 |
80.9 |
58.9 |
60.6 |
53.5 |
51.1 |
42.7 |
41.0 |
| Mean impact |
0.9 |
1.5 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
4.4 |
| Standard Deviation |
2.0 |
2.4 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
4.0 |
3.3 |
4.7 |
| Median impact |
4.5 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
5.3 |
4.8 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
| Minimum |
-9.0 |
-9.0 |
-15.9 |
-15.9 |
-12.7 |
-12.7 |
-7.3 |
-7.3 |
| Maximum |
9.3 |
9.3 |
11.1 |
11.1 |
13.6 |
13.6 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
| Number of observations |
64 |
64 |
75 |
75 |
48 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
Table 3
MEANS OF AVAILABLE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES
| |
Number of Observations |
Mean |
Standard Deviation |
| Characteristics of Interventions |
Program impacts on the percentage who— |
Were sanctioned |
62 |
6.37 |
7.77 |
| Participated in job search |
66 |
21.12 |
13.95 |
| Participated in basic education |
66 |
7.31 |
11.90 |
| Participated in vocational education |
66 |
2.81 |
5.02 |
| Participated in work experience |
76 |
2.86 |
5.57 |
| Percentage of interventions that included financial incentives |
79 |
31.65 |
46.81 |
| Percentage of interventions that only provided financial incentives |
79 |
15.19 |
36.12 |
| Monthly amount of financial incentive after 13 months in a job in year 2000 dollars |
79 |
82.75 |
135.68 |
| Percentage of interventions that included time limit |
79 |
15.19 |
36.12 |
| Percentage of interventions targeted at 2-parent families |
79 |
20.25 |
40.45 |
| Net cost to the government in year 2000 dollars |
61 |
1853.41 |
1711.49 |
| Number of years since 1982 to mid-point of random assignment |
79 |
8.85 |
3.69 |
| Characteristics of Target Population |
Average age of target group |
71 |
31.02 |
3.92 |
| Average number of children in family |
62 |
1.94 |
0.33 |
| Percentage of target population-- |
Employed during year before random assignment |
63 |
48.33 |
17.41 |
| On AFDC for at least 2 years before random assignment |
63 |
46.08 |
23.92 |
| With either a high school degree or a GED |
62 |
51.50 |
11.08 |
| Who were under 25 years of age |
58 |
26.64 |
21.93 |
| With at least one child under 6 years of age |
51 |
50.71 |
23.56 |
| Who were white |
77 |
41.24 |
23.36 |
| Who were black |
76 |
36.02 |
25.96 |
| Who were Hispanic |
70 |
17.24 |
14.73 |
| Socio-Economic Conditions at Site |
Maximum ADC payment for a family of 3 in year 2000 dollars |
79 |
602.67 |
199.43 |
| Median household income in year 2000 dollars |
79 |
40237.38 |
6670.37 |
| Poverty rate |
79 |
14.61 |
4.96 |
| Unemployment rate |
79 |
6.36 |
2.34 |
| Percent of workforce in manufacturing employment |
79 |
12.99 |
5.16 |
| Annual percentage change in manufacturing employment |
79 |
1.11 |
4.49 |
| Percentage of sites that at first sanction specified minimum length or terminated full family benefits |
79 |
6.33 |
24.50 |
Table 4
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS ON EARNINGS
| |
Quarter since random assignment |
| 3 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
| Constant |
11.644 (30.80) |
-126.070 (143.27) |
3.714 (41.62) |
-5.523 (141.25) |
-1.695 (47.61) |
217.358 (149.34) |
-62.258 (78.61) |
-128.846 (297.33) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
1.340 (1.17) |
2.426* (1.44) |
4.586*** (1.43) |
6.337*** (1.92) |
2.217 (1.53) |
-0.652 (2.20) |
0.085 (2.01) |
0.713 (3.15) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
2.395*** (0.77) |
1.924** (0.81) |
2.280*** (0.80) |
1.711** (0.85) |
3.582*** (0.97) |
3.486*** (1.05) |
2.025 (1.42) |
1.909 (1.59) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
-0.818 (1.09) |
-1.859 (1.18) |
-0.688 (1.11) |
-1.873 (1.24) |
0.967 (1.13) |
1.373 (1.25) |
-1.266 (1.90) |
-1.795 (2.35) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
-6.276** (2.58) |
-4.889* (2.75) |
-2.069 (2.63) |
1.579 (2.88) |
-6.791** (3.09) |
-4.542 (3.36) |
6.403 (4.88) |
7.335 (6.01) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
0.583 (2.08) |
-1.238 (2.25) |
0.919 (2.45) |
-2.763 (2.74) |
6.530* (3.32) |
6.487* (3.74) |
4.212 (5.24) |
1.826 (7.06) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-63.761*** (19.53) |
-46.481** (21.31) |
-37.343* (21.13) |
-44.170* (23.06) |
-12.477 (23.02) |
-20.880 (25.70) |
27.623 (34.93) |
16.641 (39.02) |
| Intervention included time limit=1 |
-3.916 (23.63) |
-5.517 (25.47) |
10.019 (25.88) |
27.207 (31.26) |
43.370 (27.88) |
68.010** (32.95) |
-5.058 (38.84) |
5.527 (46.82) |
| Number of years since 1982 |
4.431 (2.74) |
0.497 (3.40) |
2.933 (3.49) |
-1.452 (4.22) |
2.845 (3.99) |
5.583 (5.15) |
10.209 (6.76) |
8.677 (8.15) |
| Two-parent family target group=1 |
62.691* (34.25) |
40.910 (40.40) |
35.280 (33.15) |
38.581 (39.22) |
-54.159 (34.60) |
-3.799 (40.94) |
38.792 (50.73) |
18.250 (72.87) |
| Average age of target group |
|
4.694 (4.20) |
|
5.413 (4.04) |
|
-2.256 (4.33) |
|
4.455 (7.42) |
| % of target group with recent employment |
|
0.425 (0.85) |
|
-1.041 (0.87) |
|
-3.147*** (0.91) |
|
-0.424 (1.53) |
| Annual % change in local manufacturing employment |
|
7.636*** (2.82) |
|
7.693** (3.15) |
|
-2.617 (3.36) |
|
-2.444 (4.90) |
| Poverty rate |
|
0.943 (2.19) |
|
-4.774** (2.26) |
|
-1.087 (2.72) |
|
-2.037 (5.10) |
| Adjusted R-squared |
0.349 |
0.386 |
0.201 |
0.239 |
0.228 |
0.279 |
0.011 |
-0.075 |
| F-test for regression |
5.640*** |
|
3.179*** |
|
2.802*** |
|
1.054 |
|
| F-test for contribution of added variables |
|
2.057* |
|
1.855 |
|
1.825 |
|
0.299 |
| Number of observations |
79 |
79 |
79 |
79 |
56 |
56 |
45 |
45 |
| ***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level. |
Table 5
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS ON PERCENTAGE EMPLOYED
(Standard errors in parenthesis)
| |
Quarter since random assignment |
| 3 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
| Constant |
-2.059 ** (0.79) |
-3.983 (2.74) |
-1.519 (0.92) |
-5.193 * (3.08) |
-0.761 (1.43) |
9.641 ** (3.78) |
-3.330 (2.09) |
-1.868 (5.03) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
0.009 (0.03) |
0.060 * (0.03) |
0.106 *** (0.03) |
0.180 *** (0.04) |
0.029 (0.03) |
-0.083 (0.05) |
-0.036 (0.04) |
-0.030 (0.06) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
0.129 *** (0.02) |
0.098 *** (0.02) |
0.084 *** (0.02) |
0.068 *** (0.02) |
0.124 *** (0.03) |
0.134 *** (0.03) |
0.148 *** (0.04) |
0.142 *** (0.04) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
0.013 (0.02) |
-0.040 (0.03) |
0.035 (0.02) |
-0.014 (0.03) |
0.043 (0.03) |
0.047 (0.03) |
0.069 ** (0.03) |
0.048 (0.04) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
-0.372 *** (0.06) |
-0.314 *** (0.07) |
-0.162 ** (0.06) |
-0.047 (0.07) |
-0.202 ** (0.08) |
-0.125 (0.08) |
-0.004 (0.12) |
0.006 (0.13) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
0.071 * (0.04) |
0.025 (0.04) |
0.074 * (0.04) |
-0.037 (0.05) |
0.087 (0.07) |
0.091 (0.08) |
-0.155 (0.11) |
-0.201 (0.12) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-1.189 ** (0.48) |
-0.741 (0.51) |
-0.198 (0.52) |
-0.097 (0.56) |
-0.204 (0.63) |
-0.786 (0.67) |
-0.791 (0.87) |
-0.718 (0.82) |
| Intervention included time limit=1 |
0.038 (0.66) |
-0.303 (0.70) |
1.060 (0.74) |
1.368 (0.83) |
3.301 *** (0.83) |
3.283 *** (0.93) |
3.791 *** (0.99) |
3.788 *** (1.12) |
| Number of years since 1982 |
0.406 *** (0.07) |
0.206 ** (0.09) |
0.204 *** (0.08) |
0.051 (0.10) |
0.120 (0.11) |
0.228 (0.14) |
0.304 * (0.16) |
0.276 (0.18) |
| Two-parent family target group=1 |
-0.966 (0.63) |
-1.696 ** (0.76) |
-1.782 *** (0.65) |
-2.146 *** (0.80) |
0.457 (0.73) |
2.197 ** (0.86) |
0.113 (0.92) |
0.783 (1.03) |
| Average age of target group |
|
0.146 * (0.08) |
|
0.247 *** (0.09) |
|
-0.154 (0.10) |
|
0.069 (0.12) |
| % of target group with recent employment |
|
0.013 (0.02) |
|
-0.014 (0.02) |
|
-0.101 *** (0.02) |
|
-0.037 (0.03) |
| Annual % change in local manufacturing employment |
|
0.270 *** (0.06) |
|
0.129 * (0.07) |
|
-0.093 (0.07) |
|
-0.060 (0.08) |
| Maximum AFDC payment for a family of 3 |
|
-0.046 (0.05) |
|
-0.129 ** (0.05) |
|
-0.097 (0.06) |
|
-0.092 (0.08) |
| Adjusted R-squared |
0.355 |
0.403 |
0.191 |
0.221 |
0.328 |
0.493 |
0.261 |
0.279 |
| F-test for regression |
5.102 *** |
|
2.967 *** |
|
3.715 *** |
|
3.037 *** |
|
| F-test for contribution of added variables |
|
2.158 * |
|
1.636 |
|
4.330 *** |
|
1.274 |
| Number of observations |
68 |
68 |
76 |
76 |
51 |
51 |
53 |
53 |
| ***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level. |
Table 6
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS ON AMOUNT OF AFDC PAYMENTS
(Standard errors in parentheses)
| |
Quarter since random assignment |
| 3 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
| Constant |
29.429 *(16.66) |
119.895 **(59.75) |
-20.133 (18.87) |
-177.367 *** (58.87) |
-174.792 *** (26.77) |
-203.292 *** (65.24) |
-36.465 (28.12) |
-33.129 (100.44) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
4.111 ***(0.56) |
3.261 ***(0.66) |
3.692 ***(0.58) |
5.842 ***(0.83) |
0.916 *(0.53) |
3.290 ***(1.01) |
-0.125 (0.84) |
0.672 (1.17) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
1.406 ***(0.33) |
0.973 **(0.37) |
2.701 ***(0.34) |
1.093 ***(0.39) |
4.183 ***(0.40) |
1.945 ***(0.51) |
2.928 ***(0.60) |
1.437 *(0.85) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
1.673 ***(0.51) |
1.143 *(0.60) |
2.069 ***(0.51) |
-0.947 (0.64) |
3.151 ***(0.54) |
-0.557 (0.74) |
1.700 **(0.68) |
1.251 (0.90) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
-3.393 ***(1.08) |
0.125 (1.28) |
-1.988 *(1.05) |
4.303 ***(1.28) |
-1.694 (1.19) |
4.369 ***(1.46) |
-1.295 (1.90) |
-1.376 (2.36) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
-1.640 (1.11) |
-0.840 (1.22) |
-1.294 (1.04) |
-4.835 ***(1.30) |
1.865 (1.28) |
-1.958 (1.61) |
-1.897 (2.18) |
-1.278 (2.97) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-118.585 ***(8.82) |
-138.649 ***(9.87) |
-84.248 ***(8.38) |
-111.666 ***(9.80) |
-78.413 ***(9.93) |
-107.303 ***(11.98) |
-20.716 (16.43) |
-26.539 (19.77) |
| Intervention included time limit=1 |
18.760 *(10.43) |
31.165 ***(11.19) |
32.241 ***(11.23) |
64.701 ***(13.10) |
43.899 ***(11.36) |
73.533 ***(13.68) |
38.507 **(15.69) |
55.726 ***(18.70) |
| Number of years since 1982 |
-1.840 (1.42) |
-0.250 (1.62) |
0.558(1.62) |
-4.144 *(2.17) |
13.353 ***(2.02) |
5.778 **(2.86) |
5.826 **(2.32) |
2.687 (2.74) |
| Two-parent family target group=1 |
61.322 **(24.21) |
74.592 ***(25.51) |
46.902 **(20.56) |
4.649 (23.10) |
7.911 (23.12) |
-16.586 (25.18) |
-97.158 ***(33.06) |
-81.327 **(38.10) |
| Average age of target group |
|
-3.213 (2.00) |
|
5.065 ***(1.82) |
|
1.958 (1.82) |
|
0.998 (2.93) |
| % of target group with recent employment |
|
-1.354 ***(0.31) |
|
-0.483(0.36) |
|
-1.009 **(0.39) |
|
-0.709(0.62) |
| Annual % change in local manufacturing employment |
|
-0.572(1.21) |
|
6.925 ***(1.54) |
|
5.122 ***(1.50) |
|
4.672 **(1.88) |
| Maximum AFDC payment for a family of 3 |
|
0.116 ***(0.03) |
|
0.175 ***(0.03) |
|
0.247 ***(0.04) |
|
0.085 (0.06) |
| Adjusted R-squared |
0.376 |
0.376 |
0.329 |
0.407 |
0.387 |
0.472 |
0.473 |
0.589 |
| F-test for regression |
5.880 *** |
|
4.819 *** |
|
4.508 *** |
|
5.283 *** |
|
| F-test for contribution of added variables |
|
1.017 |
|
2.994 ** |
|
2.650 ** |
|
3.416 ** |
| Number of observations |
74 |
74 |
71 |
71 |
51 |
51 |
44 |
44 |
| ***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level. |
Table 7
REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS OF WELFARE-TO-WORK PROGRAMS ON PERCENTAGE PARTICIPATING IN AFDC
(Standard errors in parentheses)
| |
Quarter since random assignment |
| 3 |
3 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
| Constant |
3.877 *** (0.75) |
5.159 ** (2.33) |
2.810*** (0.85) |
-1.755 (3.08) |
1.846 (1.32) |
4.321 (4.07) |
-1.825 (1.65) |
0.360 (5.78) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
0.075 ***(0.02) |
0.072 **(0.03) |
0.117*** (0.03) |
0.181 *** (0.05) |
0.103 *** (0.04) |
0.107 * (0.06) |
0.060 (0.05) |
0.071 (0.08) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
0.003 (0.02) |
-0.001 (0.02) |
0.057*** (0.02) |
0.026 (0.02) |
0.085 *** (0.02) |
0.053 * (0.03) |
0.054 (0.03) |
0.066 * (0.04) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
-0.021 (0.02) |
-0.011 (0.02) |
-0.019 (0.02) |
-0.095 *** (0.03) |
-0.008 (0.03) |
-0.055 (0.03) |
0.063 * (0.04) |
0.056 (0.05) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
-0.085 (0.05) |
-0.125 ** (0.06) |
0.002 (0.06) |
0.131 * (0.07) |
-0.155 ** (0.08) |
-0.078 (0.08) |
-0.194 * (0.10) |
-0.229 * (0.13) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
-0.074 * (0.04) |
-0.056 (0.05) |
-0.074 (0.05) |
-0.157 *** (0.06) |
0.031 (0.08) |
-0.042 (0.09) |
0.136 (0.11) |
0.074 (0.16) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-6.006 *** (0.46) |
-6.262 *** (0.50) |
-5.424 *** (0.55) |
-5.527 *** (0.63) |
-5.703 *** (0.70) |
-5.963 *** (0.82) |
-0.452 (0.84) |
-0.197 (1.10) |
| Intervention included time limit=1 |
1.121 * (0.62) |
0.835 (0.64) |
2.043 *** (0.74) |
3.301 *** (0.81) |
4.659 *** (0.84) |
6.194 *** (0.93) |
1.884 * (0.99) |
2.974 ** (1.42) |
| Number of years since 1982 |
-0.109 * (0.06) |
-0.112 (0.08) |
-0.110 (0.07) |
-0.249 ** (0.10) |
-0.032 (0.11) |
-0.196 (0.15) |
0.438 *** (0.14) |
0.328 * (0.18) |
| Two-parent family target group=1 |
-1.664 *** (0.56) |
-1.783 ** (0.69) |
-2.660 *** (0.68) |
-3.722 *** (0.88) |
-5.044 *** (0.82) |
-4.601 *** (1.04) |
-4.843 *** (1.17) |
-3.638 ** (1.70) |
| Average age of target group |
|
-0.052 (0.07) |
|
0.159 (0.10) |
|
0.025 (0.11) |
|
0.057 (0.16) |
| % of target group with recent employment |
|
0.021(0.01) |
|
-0.021 (0.02) |
|
-0.070 *** (0.02) |
|
-0.045 (0.04) |
| Annual % change in local Manufacturing employment |
|
0.050(0.06) |
|
0.202 *** (0.07) |
|
0.190 ** (0.09) |
|
0.006 (0.10) |
| Maximum AFDC payment for a family of 3 |
|
-0.001 (0.00) |
|
0.004 ** (0.00) |
|
0.004 * (0.00) |
|
-0.002 (0.00) |
| Adjusted R-squared |
0.444 |
0.418 |
0.425 |
0.447 |
0.469 |
0.494 |
0.456 |
0.456 |
| F-test for regression |
6.593 *** |
|
7.086*** |
|
5.605 *** |
|
5.095 *** |
|
| F-test for contribution of added variables |
|
0.388 |
|
1.626 |
|
1.475 |
|
1.009 |
| Number of observations |
64 |
64 |
75 |
75 |
48 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
| ***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level. |
Table 8
SENSITIVITY TESTS OF REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS ON EARNINGS (7th QUARTER)
(Standard errors in parentheses)
| |
[1] |
[2] |
[3] |
[4] |
[5] |
| Constant |
-5.523 (141.25) |
180.587 (167.48) |
-54.502 (141.93) |
92.961 (188.81) |
-2.906 (149.25) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
6.337 *** (1.92) |
6.170 *** (2.29) |
6.608 *** (1.94) |
3.328 (2.85) |
6.773 *** (2.13) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
1.711 ** (0.85) |
1.510 (1.01) |
1.610 * (0.85) |
3.141 ** (1.23) |
1.701 * (0.92) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
-1.873 (1.24) |
-0.686 (1.47) |
-2.221 *(1.25) |
0.053 (1.68) |
-1.997 (1.33) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
1.579 (2.88) |
-0.370 (3.42) |
0.937 (2.89) |
-0.924 (3.46) |
1.906 (3.09) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
-2.763 (2.74) |
-3.945 (3.25) |
-2.965 (2.75) |
0.118 (3.79) |
-3.153 (2.89) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-44.170 * (23.06) |
-29.174 (27.31) |
-45.387 * (23.14) |
-147.741 ** (64.80) |
-38.148 (24.09) |
| Intervention included time limit=1 |
27.207 (31.26) |
-10.960 (36.96) |
27.091 (31.32) |
109.571 (66.05) |
32.577 (33.49) |
| Number of years since 1982 |
-1.452 (4.22) |
6.167 (5.02) |
-2.703 (4.25) |
9.926 (6.97) |
-3.297(4.42) |
| Two-parent family target group=1 |
38.581(39.22) |
19.958 (48.52) |
-3.928 (41.12) |
6.894 (64.82) |
36.847 (40.66) |
| Average age of target group |
5.413 (4.04) |
1.674 (4.80) |
6.990 * (4.07) |
-0.260 (5.45) |
6.219 (4.29) |
| % of target group with recent employment |
-1.041 (0.87) |
-2.320 ** (1.03) |
-0.705 (0.87) |
-1.258 (1.16) |
-1.101 (0.91) |
| Annual % change in local manufacturing employment |
7.693 ** (3.15) |
7.185 *(3.76) |
7.382 ** (3.19) |
5.514 (4.74) |
8.265 ** (3.32) |
| Poverty rate |
-4.774 **(2.26) |
-9.846 *** (2.67) |
-4.486 * (2.26) |
-6.291 * (3.71) |
-5.310 ** (2.35) |
| Adjusted R-squared |
0.239 |
0.089 |
0.287 |
0.381 |
0.238 |
| Number of observations |
79 |
79 |
75 |
53 |
79 |
***significant at the 1-percent level; **significant at the 5-percent level; *significant at the 10-percent level.
Legend:
[1] Original estimates,
[2] Unweighted estimates,
[3] Observations with two highest and lowest impacts omitted,
[4] Observations with missing data omitted,
[5] Observation using same controls given half weight
|
Table 9
SENSITIVITY TESTS OF REGRESSION MODELS OF THE IMPACTS ON PERCENTAGE EMPLOYED
(7th QUARTER)
(Standard errors in parentheses)
| |
[1] |
[2] |
[3] |
[4] |
[5] |
| Constant |
-5.193 * (3.08) |
-1.326 (7.37) |
-3.748 (3.11) |
-4.578 (3.63) |
-5.470 (3.32) |
| Intervention impact on % sanctioned |
0.180 *** (0.04) |
0.207 ** (0.10) |
0.159 *** (0.04) |
0.111 ** (0.05) |
0.217 *** (0.05) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in job search |
0.068 *** (0.02) |
0.064 (0.04) |
0.059 *** (0.02) |
0.100 *** (0.02) |
0.072 *** (0.02) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in basic education |
-0.014 (0.03) |
0.021 (0.06) |
-0.024 (0.03) |
0.028 (0.03) |
-0.034 (0.03) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in vocational education |
-0.047 (0.07) |
-0.099 (0.16) |
-0.011 (0.07) |
-0.117 (0.08) |
-0.008 (0.08) |
| Intervention impact on % participated in work experience |
-0.037 (0.05) |
-0.002 (0.12) |
-0.009 (0.05) |
0.048 (0.06) |
-0.077 (0.06) |
| Intervention included financial incentive=1 |
-0.097 (0.56) |
-0.083 (1.41) |
-0.132 (0.56) |
0.972 (1.30) |
|
