ACF OPRE: TANF Caseload Composition and Leavers

**Exhibit ES2: Employment of Welfare Recipients**
	1996	1997	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2005
NSAF Early		20.9	31.5
NSAF Late			31.5			29.2
SIPP Early	22.8				27.8
SIPP Late			28.2				24.9
CPS Late				31				24.5

Source: Authors' Calculations.
Notes: Lines between points are intended to show trends over time and do not reflect actual data for interim years. For definitions of TANF family used in the surveys see ES-1. (back)

**Exhibit ES3: Employment of Former Welfare Recipients**
NSAF
1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
	63.4					59.4

SIPP
1996	1997	1988	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
56.7					49.3

CPS
1996	1997	1988	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
				54.5					39.3

Source: Authors' Calculations.
Notes: Lines between points are intended to show trends over time and do not reflect actual data for interim years.
For definitions of TANF family used in the surveys see ES-1. (back)

**Exhibit ES4: Mean Household Income of Welfare Recipients**
NSAF Early
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Change
Mean household income ($2005)		$10,568		$12,763							$2,196*
NSAF Late
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Change
Mean household income ($2005)				$12,763			$14,846				$2,083
SIPP Early
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Change
Mean household income ($2005)	$20,469					$21,583					$1,114
SIPP Late
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Change
Mean household income ($2005)				$23,366				$24,495			$1,129
CPS
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Change
Mean household income ($2005)					$17,820					$17,535	-$285*

Source: Authors' Calculations.
Notes: Lines between points are intended to show trends over time and do not reflect actual data for interim years.
For definitions of TANF family used in the surveys see ES-1. (back)

**Exhibit ES5: Mean Household Income of Former Welfare Recipients**
	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
NSAF		$16,528					$16,593
SIPP	$26,189					$22,904
CPS					$25,528					$22,733

Source: Authors' Calculations.
Notes: Lines between points are intended to show trends over time and do not reflect actual data for interim years.
For definitions of TANF family used in the surveys see ES-1. (back)

**Figure 1: Total AFDC/TANF Families**
	Jan-93	Jan-94	Jan-95	Jan-96	Jan-97	Jan-98	Jan-99	Jan-00	Jan-01	Jan-02	Jan-03	Jan-04	Jan-05	Jan-06
Total AFDC/TANF Families	4,963,050	5,052,854	4,963,071	4,627,941	4,113,775	3,304,814	2,733,932	2,317,832	2,139,937	2,094,797	2,044,980	1,994,789	1,961,574	1,846,381

Source: ACF News - Statistics. Administration for Children and Families. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (back)

Figure 2: Time Periods for TANF Recipient Analysis

The figure shows the size of the AFDC/TANF caseload from 1993 through 2006. The monthly caseload fell from about 5 million in 1993 to 4.6 million in 1996, to 2.7 million in 1999, and to 1.8 million in 2006. Superimposed on this chart, we note the time periods covered by the three data sets used in our analysis. The early period of welfare reform runs from 1997 to 1999 in the NSAF and from 1996 to 2001 in the SIPP. The late period of welfare reform runs from 1999 to 2002 in the NSAF, from 1999 to 2003 in the SIPP, and from 2000 to 2005 in the CPS. (back)

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