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Moving Beyond Statistical Significance: The BASIE (BAyeSian Interpretation of Estimates) Framework for Interpreting Findings from Impact Evaluations

March 15, 2019
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For nearly 100 years, the null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) framework has been used to determine which findings are meaningful (Fisher 1925; Neyman and Pearson 1933). Under this framework, findings deemed meaningful are called “statistically significant.”  But the meaning of statistical significance is often...

Bayesian Methods for Social Policy Research and Evaluation

July 3, 2018
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Probability (p) values are widely used in social science research and evaluation to guide decisions on program and policy changes. However, they have some inherent limitations, sometimes leading to misuse, misinterpretation, or misinformed decisions. Bayesian methods...

Understanding Bayesian Statistics: Frequently Asked Questions and Recommended Resources

July 3, 2018
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There is a growing understanding that there are some inherent limitations in using p-values to guide decisions about programs and policies. Bayesian methods are emerging as the primary alternative to p-values and offer a number of advantages...