Introduction
The Cross Jurisdiction Model Replication (CJMR) project sought to understand the degree to which a risk prediction model built from population-level and anonymized birth records in one state could be used to differentiate the risk of foster care placement in other jurisdictions. Specifically, this project estimated population-level differences in the risk of being placed in foster care by applying a single risk prediction model (from California) to anonymized birth records from Alaska and Kentucky. The risk prediction model was designed to explore whether birth record data could help jurisdictions understand geographic variation in risk, improve planning for services, and focus limited resources on the most at-risk communities.
Purpose
This webinar highlighted findings from the CJMR project. Presenters discussed their experiences developing, validating, and replicating the risk prediction model in new jurisdictions and answered questions from the audience.
Key Findings and Highlights
- Findings highlight the potential to leverage birth records to understand geographic differences in foster care placement risk. The risk prediction model created from California data generalized well to two other jurisdictions: Kentucky and Alaska. The model generalized to these other jurisdictions despite differences in governance, child welfare agency structure, and definitions and policies from the jurisdiction used to develop the model.
- Using this risk prediction model, other jurisdictions could use only birth records (even if that data is not linked to anything else) to predict risk of foster care placement. This risk prediction model may be useful for jurisdictions that do not have the analytic capacity or data accessibility to develop their own risk prediction models.
- Implementation of the risk prediction model may inform efforts to plan and focus community-based resources and help identify populations experiencing disparities.
Citation
Stagner, Matt, Claire Smither Wulsin, Jared Parrish, Emily Putnam Hornstein, and Matthew Walton (2022). Webinar: What Can We Learn About the Incidence of Foster Care Placement from Birth Records? Findings from the Cross Jurisdiction Model Replication Project. October 25, 2022. Washington, DC: Office of Planning, Research and Evaluation, Administration for Children and Families, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.